Southwest Monsoon Set to Arrive in Kerala by May 27, Says IMD

Thiruvananthapuram: The southwest monsoon is poised to make landfall over Kerala as early as May 27, nearly a week ahead of the climatological norm of June 1. Should this forecast materialize, it would mark the earliest monsoon onset on the Indian mainland since May 23, 2009, according to the India Meteorological Department (IMD).
Over the past two days, moderate to heavy rains have lashed the Nicobar Islands, accompanied by a marked intensification of westerly winds over the south Bay of Bengal and adjoining seas. Wind speeds in this sector have exceeded 20 knots at an altitude of 1.5 km, with strong flows extending up to 4.5 km, while a pronounced drop in Outgoing Longwave Radiation—a key indicator of cloud cover—has confirmed the necessary conditions for monsoon advance.
Having already penetrated the south Bay of Bengal, south Andaman Sea, Nicobar Islands and parts of the north Andaman Sea, the monsoon is now expected to push northwestward over the coming days. By the end of the week, moist southwesterly currents will extend into more areas of the Bay of Bengal and the remaining stretches of the Andaman Sea, before sweeping across the entire Andaman and Nicobar archipelago. Simultaneously, the system will deepen over the south Arabian Sea, the Maldives, and the Comorin region, laying the groundwork for its full spread across southern peninsular India.
The IMD’s early-April forecast of above-normal cumulative rainfall for the 2025 season—and its ruling out of an El Niño event—underscores the likelihood of a robust monsoon. Timely and abundant rains are vital for India’s agriculture sector, which employs roughly 42 percent of the workforce and contributes about 18 percent of GDP, as well as for replenishing reservoirs that feed drinking-water supplies and hydroelectric power plants. With its accelerated onset, this year’s monsoon could provide a much-needed boost to water resources and farm incomes across the country.