Super El Nino Could Cause 450,000 Deaths in Next Six Months, Scientists Warn

A powerful El Nino weather event could cause more than 450,000 additional heat-related deaths worldwide over the next six months, according to estimates by climate scientists in a new report by the University of Chicago’s Energy Policy Institute

The projected deaths, covering September 2026 to February 2027, would be in addition to early deaths already linked to climate-driven temperature rises. Researchers said heat-related mortality could remain elevated until June or July next year as the effects of the event continue.

The countries expected to be most affected include Nigeria, Indonesia, Sudan, India and Brazil. The Sahel region in Africa and south-east Asia are also likely to face severe impacts. The United States is among the top 20 most affected countries projected to record the highest number of additional deaths, with an estimated 3,500 fatalities. According to the estimates, India is projected to see roughly 15,800 additional heat-related deaths.

The El Nino has already exceeded the highest temperature previously recorded for the climate phenomenon, doing so several months before its expected peak. Scientists have described the event as “mind-blowing” and “Godzilla-level”.

Researchers said the projections were produced by analysing the relationship between monthly temperatures and heat-related deaths across 24,378 regions, before combining the data with forecasts for El Nino-driven warming.

They urged governments to expand heat-warning systems, open cooling centres, increase medical staffing during extreme heat and strengthen protections for outdoor workers.

The event could also worsen droughts, wildfires and floods, while threatening food supplies. The World Food Programme has warned that El Nino could push about 50 million people into acute hunger and raise food prices.