Birth Rates Drop Sharply in Kerala, Tamil Nadu, and Delhi, Reveals SRS 2021

Thiruvananthapuram: The latest Sample Registration System (SRS) 2021 report released by the Office of the Registrar General of India reveals that states like Kerala, Tamil Nadu, and Delhi are witnessing a steep decline in their crude birth rates—at nearly double the pace of the national average.
India’s crude birth rate, which denotes the number of live births per 1,000 people, stood at 19.3 in 2021. From 2016 to 2021, this rate fell at an annual pace of 1.12%. In contrast, Tamil Nadu recorded a 2.35% annual drop during the same period, Delhi 2.23%, and Kerala 2.05%, marking them among the fastest-declining regions in the country. These figures point to a significant demographic shift in these regions, driven by improved education, better access to healthcare, and changing social aspirations.
At the other end of the spectrum, some of the slowest declines were reported in northern and central Indian states. Rajasthan recorded the lowest annual drop at just 0.48%, followed by Bihar (0.86%), Chhattisgarh and Jharkhand (0.98%), Assam and Madhya Pradesh (1.05%), West Bengal (1.08%), and Uttar Pradesh (1.09%). In fact, Uttarakhand was the only state in India to report a rise in birth rate during this period.
The report highlights that 13 large states and union territories, including all southern states—Andhra Pradesh (1.26%), Telangana (1.67%), Karnataka (1.68%), Tamil Nadu, and Kerala—saw declines in birth rates faster than the national average. These patterns reflect broader transitions in fertility behavior, with southern India moving rapidly toward population stabilization.
Supporting the findings of the SRS, the Civil Registration System (CRS) 2021 data shows a rise in registered births in states that are witnessing only a slow decline in birth rates. These include Bihar, Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, West Bengal, Jammu and Kashmir, Ladakh, Lakshadweep, Arunachal Pradesh, Mizoram, and Nagaland.
Meanwhile, southern states such as Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, Karnataka, and Kerala have reported a steady fall in registered births since 2012. Although Andhra Pradesh showed a slight increase in 2021, the general trend remains downward. Telangana witnessed a sudden increase in registered births post-2019, followed by a dramatic decline after 2020.
The report also includes data on total fertility rate (TFR) and gross reproduction rate (GRR), which reflect long-term reproductive behavior. While India’s TFR was 2 in 2021, Bihar recorded a TFR of 3, Uttar Pradesh 2.7, Rajasthan 2.4, and Madhya Pradesh 2.6—all above the national average. TFR represents the average number of children a woman is expected to have in her lifetime, and these figures suggest continued population growth in several Hindi belt states.
By contrast, Kerala, Maharashtra, and Tamil Nadu have achieved TFR levels below the replacement rate, aligning with global population stabilization trends. West Bengal, despite showing slower decline in birth rate, recorded the lowest TFR at 1.4, alongside the lowest GRR at 0.7—indicating fewer daughters born per woman reaching reproductive age.
India’s GRR in 2021 stood at 1, but was significantly higher in states like Bihar (1.4), Uttar Pradesh (1.3), Rajasthan (1.2), and Madhya Pradesh (1.2). These numbers reflect ongoing regional disparities in fertility and reproduction.